Groundwater is a vital part of the hydrological cycle, sustaining ecosystems, agriculture, and human needs, yet it is highly sensitive to both short-term climate variability and long-term climate change. My research focuses on simulating the evolution of groundwater levels across North America from 1800 CE to 2300 CE using the Water Table Model (WTM) — a physics-based numerical framework that couples groundwater flow with dynamic surface-water processes. The model integrates multiple climate datasets, including paleoclimate reconstructions (TraCE-21ka), historical observations (TerraClimate and CMIP6-historical), and future projections (CMIP6 SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5), all bias-corrected and downscaled to a high-resolution 1 km grid. This multi-century transient simulation captures both natural variability and climate-induced change, allowing for the examination of how groundwater responds to temperature, precipitation, and evapotranspiration patterns over time.
The project has three major goals: first, to simulate seasonal water-table variability and identify how climate forcing drives present-day groundwater fluctuations; second, to evaluate future groundwater responses under different emission scenarios to determine the range of possible climate impacts on water availability; and third, to identify regions most vulnerable to groundwater depletion and assess their management implications. Extending the analysis beyond the 21st century provides the first continuous, high-resolution reconstruction of continental water-table dynamics over millennial timescales. The results will enhance understanding of groundwater–climate interactions, reveal spatial-temporal patterns of depletion and recharge, and offer a scientific foundation for sustainable water-resource management across North America.